As investors reflect on a robust first quarter for the S & P 500, many may be feeling optimistic about what lies ahead. However, according to CFRA’s Sam Stovall, it may be time to brace for a bumpy ride. Despite the impressive performance in the first quarter, with the S & P 500 recording its best start since 2019, the second quarter kicked off with a 1% decline as the 10-year Treasury note yield reached its highest level since November. This raised concerns about the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, signaling potential challenges in the months to come.
Stovall’s analysis of historical data indicates that while a strong first quarter often leads to a positive second quarter, it also sets the stage for increased volatility. Looking back at the 15 strongest first-quarter returns since World War II, Stovall found that they were typically followed by second quarters with an average increase of 3.7%. However, these periods of growth were also accompanied by significant intrayear declines, with 13 out of the 15 instances experiencing losses of 5% or more. The average loss during these downturns exceeded 11%, highlighting the potential for a turbulent year ahead.
In light of recent economic data suggesting a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, investors have begun to reevaluate their positions. Stovall emphasized the importance of staying committed to winning positions, even in the face of short-term volatility. While tech stocks may have had a slow start in the second quarter, Stovall believes they could still outperform by the end of the year. He pointed out that despite the anticipated fluctuations and potential increase in daily volatility, historical data indicates that the majority of these strong first quarters ultimately resulted in double-digit full-year price increases, averaging nearly 23%.
As investors navigate the twists and turns of the market in the coming months, it is essential to maintain a long-term perspective. Stovall’s analysis serves as a timely reminder that while the road may be rocky, staying the course can lead to fulfilling full-year performance. The volatility seen in the early stages of the year may be a precursor to greater challenges ahead, but history suggests that with strategic decision-making and a steadfast approach, investors can still come out ahead. By remaining mindful of past patterns and staying disciplined in the face of uncertainty, investors can position themselves for success in the year ahead.
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